btc-implicit-distribution - Bitcoin implied price distribution explorer
09 Jul 2026
Reading time ~1 minute
btc-implicit-distribution is a static browser-based explorer for the market-implied future price distribution of Bitcoin.
It fetches live BTC option quotes from Deribit and uses finite-difference butterflies to estimate a risk-neutral distribution for a selected expiry. The interface exposes the main assumptions so it is possible to inspect how smoothing, strike range, bid/ask envelopes, and the choice of puts or calls affect the result.
The project runs entirely in the browser: the pricing engine is written in Python and executed with Pyodide, while the chart is rendered with Plotly. There is no backend, and a short-lived local cache prevents repeated refreshes from hammering the public API.
This is a market-implied distribution, not a price oracle or a forecast. The first public commit was published on 2026-07-09, which is the date used for this project entry.